Oscillating between isolationist, export substitution, and an all-out embrace of globalization’s manifold levers, being both Dragon and Phoenix, in spite of having suffered subordination to politically assertive empires from 1850 to 1950 and having notoriously “missed” the Industrial Revolution, China is resuming its otherwise ancient status of world innovator and economic superpower.
Social control, which is essential to all social relations, is at the center of international relations. Calculation of self-interest best explains actors’ underlying incentives, and thus their willingness to comply with rules.
International institutions are generally the results of leading states. Therefore, it is world powers that could eventually, under conditions of extreme political will, promote global peace and security and not the international institutions they have created in order to build their spheres of influence and increase their power in the international system.
The World Bank rose out of political and security necessity in the US sphere of influence to stabilize Europe. It has grown to adapt through time, both to the new challenges of the late 20th century, as well as to the politically correct speech the growing global civil society has been promoting in the ever globalizing public space.
China and the west view Africa with a different set of eyes. In supporting trade with any and all nations in Africa and around the globe, China by default supports nations that have horrendous human rights track records that do not support democratic institutions. But China’s model of economic aid can be used by African nations to pull millions of people out of poverty. It is nothing more, nothing less.
As a whole the situation in the Central Asian region is fraught with future social disturbances. They are inevitable in all countries, but the degree of violence will be different according to the achieved level of development. The bloodiest events are possible in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. In the latter country, a variant of the Libyan example is quite probable.
In the new millennium, the idea of South-South Cooperation has become more popular, especially due to the continued widening of the development gap and the seeming failure of North-South development strategies. South-South Cooperation initiatives could lead to the dawn of a new economic order, where the global South is on equal terms with the global North.
African societies are already suffering from poverty, inequality and weak social cohesion. Since its emergence, HIV/AIDS has added a multifaceted layer of new dimensions to the former. It impacts on the economy, education and the food security of the household, creating a paradigm in which poverty is a challenge in stopping the HIV/AIDS epidemic and HIV/AIDS is a challenge in stopping poverty.
The War in Afghanistan is now in its tenth year. The conflict has diversified as it has developed, evolving from a purely military confrontation against the Taliban to a multi-faceted state building and humanitarian operation in an attempt to defeat the resurgent insurgency and stabilise the Afghan state on a sufficiently pro-Western model.
Globalization has entrenched and encouraged liberal democracy where it resides but in isolation can take little credit for spreading democracy globally. Moreover, globalization has been found to have a more pivotal and detrimental role in undermining democracy by providing networks and resources for anti-democratic forces.
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