As a whole the situation in the Central Asian region is fraught with future social disturbances. They are inevitable in all countries, but the degree of violence will be different according to the achieved level of development. The bloodiest events are possible in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. In the latter country, a variant of the Libyan example is quite probable.
Hitler imagined the nation in purely ethnic terms, the German Volk with the Aryan core at the top of the genetic pool. However, nationalism is too thin an ideology to be Hitler’s only political thinking and he uses the ideas of Social Darwinism, fascism and militarisation to thicken out his personal ideology.
The Kosovo intervention was the first in history to be justified solely on the basis of human rights breaches by a sovereign state within its territory, which were judged to present threat to international order. The bottom line remains that Belgrade’s sovereignty over Kosovo was first breached and then completely removed by the international community.
In its autonomous region of Xinjiang China will decide upon its lasting and largely irreversible geopolitical trademark in entering the Global Balkans. Though it is narrow, the window of opportunity exists for China to take a credible leadership for regional peace and secure stable confidence.
When they created the ECJ, the intentions of member states were to create a court which did not underestimate national sovereignty or national interest. However, the ECJ transformed the EU legal system, eventually blocking member state control over the ECJ.
The Treaty of Lisbon is not a major step in advancing the institutional interests of the EU, but some of the new institutional arrangements and the ambiguities central to its main provisions have the potential to shift the process of European integration from formal treaties towards informal evolution of competences.
The American-Russian relationship is best described as going from Cold War to Cold Peace, as articulated by the then Russian President Yeltsin. The 1990s essentially brought about a period in which the US sought to manage the uncertainties that the new world order was presenting.
Because of the deep mutual mistrust from both sides, especially the US concern over China’s military build-up, friction and cooperation will coexist in the development of the China-US naval relationship. Only when political mutual trust reaches a high level, can the military relationship stride forward beyond the stop and go cycle of the last 30 years.
While the lessons of the Libyan crisis for international relations are many, the most important lesson is the need to change the way that humanitarian interventions are conducted, as the violence experienced by civilians since the foreign intervention has increased substantially.
Russia has made a concerted attempt to become an ‘independent regional power’ since the demise of Yeltsin, with limited results in Eastern Europe, but with greater success in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia’s behaviour has been entirely predictable. Nonetheless, as China looks set to challenge Russian power in Central Asia in the future, Russia’s response remains unclear.
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