The territorial disputes concerning the Spratly and Paracel Islands and adjacent waters are still unresolved. Recently, incidents between Vietnamese seismic survey ships and Chinese coast patrols are a reminder of the conflict potential these border disputes inherit. After a phase of relative easiness among the claimants to the South China Sea islands, these newly heightened tensions cause rising worries in the region and abroad.

While the western world is likely to turn inward as its middle-classes attempt to cope with the economic squeeze, the new middle-classes in the global south are less predictable and more likely to be a force for instability. The ability of governments in the global south to respond to the changing demands of their constituents and provide competent economic governance will profoundly influence the future, both domestically and globally.

Saudi Arabia is currently in the lead against Iran. Riyadh has consolidated allegiance from states with huge payouts and also strengthened the GCC. Though Saudi Arabia faces huge difficulties in Yemen, and uncertainty in Syria and Libya, Iran has failed to make any inroads in increasing its influence at Riyadh’s expense, except in Lebanon.

The Gaddafi regime appears to be falling in Libya, but important questions must be answered if the transition to a new government is to be peaceful. Where have Gaddafi’s fighters gone; what are their plans? How united are the rebels and who is in command? Who will lead international post-conflict reconstruction efforts? And what are the implications for the Arab Spring more broadly?

Our biggest challenge is to be more attractive than those who tout rage as their ‘answer’ to prior rage and retribution; leading only to endless cycles of destruction. How to inspire haters to renounce hate, is our challenge. We face this hurdle within ourselves, as well, when we fall into feeling this way about the haters, or when we even fall into hating ourselves.