NATO has decided neither to retreat, nor to expand to fill the Arctic’s security governance vacuum. Instead, it will continue with its provision of collective security, and maintaining a ‘watching brief’.
The Arctic Game is much more significant than a mere geopolitical race between a fractured NATO, Russia and China. It will reveal the maturity, or lack thereof, of all its players.
To some, the Arctic represents the unknown, new opportunities, and the future; to others, the Arctic represents little more than a barren and frozen region that matters little in the grand scheme of world affairs.
U.S. ratification of the Law of the Sea Treaty will eventually happen, not for any foreseeable political change of heart, but for the all too sadly foreseeable continued disappearance of the Arctic ice in an arena in which the United States has no say – but will need one.
As the polar ice cap melts, the US and the international community are underprepared to address the growing economic dynamics of the Arctic.
Predicting the range of future challenges is no easy matter, but it is a necessary part of how military organizations prepare, invest in platforms and weapon systems, conduct training, and concentrate their forces.
In the spring of 1970, Canada unilaterally enacted legislation to regulate activities in the Arctic Ocean. While criticized as an attempt to assert ownership over what was then perceived to be international territory, the act signalled a bold willingness to prosecute polluters in the absence of sufficient rules of international law. Canada acted to protect the Arctic Ocean’s pristine nature for all of mankind. Today, retreating polar ice and the potential for extensive oil and gas reserves have renewed interest in the region, but for a far less altruistic motive.
Historically, the Arctic has held a definitive place in global politics. This history, however, is one defined and written about far from the Arctic itself. The narrative includes endless tales of national exploration and its centre stage military role during the Cold War. As such the Arctic has always provided a tell tale sign of all things political. The present-day is no exception.
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