The civil-military relations in Egypt and Syria help explain their domestic strife and the expected outcome after this ends. Both countries will face problems until these relations are resolved.
While there is a strong element of a proxy war behind the fighting in Syria, the forces and interests involved are best understood in terms of inter-state relations going back more than a decade.
After two years of a crisis that has irrevocably changed the Levant, it is worth taking stock of regime and opposition, reviewing primary responsibility for the devastation, and assessing prospects, with or without intervention.
Turkey will not be an instrument by which the Assad regime is deposed. It will neither directly attack the Assad government nor be the leader of an intervening coalition. If there is intervention, it will have to be an American initiative.
Unless there is some sort of extraordinary aggression taken by the Assad regime towards Turkey, NATO’s role should remain focused on harshly worded joint statements and nothing more. Article V invocation would be an overreaction.
Assad and the Syrian military are bound together in their fate. Preserving Assad’s power is crucial to keep the armed forces in safe employment – a lifestyle that could scarcely be an option under a new government.
The complicated confluence of humanitarian intervention and geo-political considerations require the Obama Administration to articulate and implement consistent, well thought through principles and values in Syria.
In the case of Syria, Western policymakers need to focus on, not whether to choose between intervention and non-intervention, but what sort of intervention will minimize costs and maximize benefits.
Relations with a post-Assad Syria remain uncertain. Should Islamic militants play a role in a new order, they would likely be suspicious of the West, and deeply resentful of US support for Israel.
Absent the circumstances that facilitated the transition to majority rule in Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Iraq, the prospects in Syria appear to be extremely poor.
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