If the EU struggles to maintain broad domestic support in its own member states, it seems likely to face a prolonged period of strategic retrenchment.
As far as European armaments cooperation is concerned, the most likely scenario after Brexit is “business as usual”.
Brexit will neither strengthen, nor obviously weaken, the Common Security and Defence Policy. It may, however, reduce the UK’s ability to contribute to European security.
If it wishes to stabilise its neighbourhood, the EU has no alternative but to develop its capacity to the fullest extent and to become a ‘strategically autonomous’ actor
If drones represent the future of warfare, by deciding to quit the race, Europe runs the risk of forcing itself into strategic and technological irrelevance.
Due to the presence of the Alliance Security Dilemma, European defence cooperation is likely to remain bilateral and sub-regional, with negative ramifications for Europe’s power in the international system.
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