Long cycle theory and international regime theory are mutually compatible and mutually supportive. In 100 years we may have passed far enough to achieve a global order anchored in a community of democracies.

Arguably, the most significant fact in international relations at the beginning of the 21st Century is the gradual emergence of China as a regional and global power, and the relative decline of what can be loosely termed the ‘status quo powers’ and their most powerful member, the US. A number of mini-crises in the South China Sea this year, are sparking concern about China’s rise and the potential for Sino-US conflict.