The need to resort to strategic symbols like Mahdi is to some degree the result of the Persian cultural trait of ta’arof which discourages direct confrontation and criticism. Westerners, bewildered by such peculiarities, often fall back on what they know best, Iran’s foreign affairs, while overlooking the domestic aspects that fuel Iranian behavior.
The dictators, the old, the ridiculous, the venial in Iran are still telling the free, the young, the educated, the expectant how to live their lives. But the democratic awakening that began in Iran and has since reverberated across the middle east is alive, and with its eyes open. That is what really scares the elite.
It is possible that at some point in the next 15-18 months Israel’s policy-makers and military officials will need to decide whether or not to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. That would certainly be one of the most complicated decisions since the establishment of the State of Israel.
The Iranian Revolution of 1979 is considered a defining moment because the Islamic Republic replaced an authoritarian monarchy that was friendly to the West. The revolution, moreover, linked religion to politics in an unprecedented way. The books reviewed herein demonstrate that the idea of a “monolithic Islam” is not only wrong, it is dangerous.
Modern Iran represents one of the biggest waiting games of the world today. A beautiful, civilised, and hospitable country containing one of the nicer peoples on earth, and with a distinguished history to boast, has become one of the world’s most rejected nations ruled by those with standards and practices more suitable to the middle ages than the 21st Century.
Iran is becoming the proverbial elephant in the room. The idea of a religious Armageddon lying around the corner is unusual in Twenty-First Century statecraft, and few national leaders vocalize such beliefs. Iran’s President Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Khamenei are stark exceptions. Prudence dictates not discounting the possibility that Ahmadinejad and his cohorts do believe their rhetoric. Vigilance is necessary.
The ongoing people’s uprisings in the Arab countries against autocratic rulers have provided Iran with both challenges and opportunities in the Middle East and beyond. Will these momentous events enhance Iran’s foreign policy opportunities, or will they ultimately lead to further isolation and strategic loneliness for Iran?
Revolutionary change is hard to understand, but it is even harder to predict. Whatever transpires in Libya, political tectonic waves are shifting. In the coming years, Cairo will rediscover its stature and voice; the Arab world’s sectarian cold war will move into a dangerous period; and aspirant democrats will search for models of their own, first Turkey, but perhaps eventually, Egypt.
Recent mutterings in the western corridors of power for an intervention in Libya are now being translated into a potential reality. Although the Iranian opposition symbolically attempts to distant itself from the outside, the regime knows that a military intervention in Libya could have serious implications for the regime in Tehran.
For many people, February 14 is about exchanging red roses and expressing their sentiments to their loved ones. However, this year Valentine’s Day coincided with mass political activism in Iran, which reinvigorated the Green Movement. The regime has no interest in compromise and political reconciliation. Hence, they will increasingly rely on the politics of the iron fist to maintain power.
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