The kind of conventional military brinkmanship going on at the common NATO-Russia border is not good news. A phenomenon not seen since the frostiest Cold War periods. If the last East-West confrontation offers a cautionary tale, it is that the situation urgently needs to be de-escalated, before worst-case scenarios become self-fulfilling prophecies.

One of the enduring features of Western strategic thinking over the past half-century has been to immediately write off one’s less powerful enemy, if the latter has been militarily overpowered. As the history of contemporary warfare suggests, very often this approach is couched on the realist thinking that a vanquished enemy is incapable of making a comeback.

According to a widely-accepted myth, NATO’s military intervention over Kosovo, bear-led by the US and UK, was a grand success. This misperception helped to encourage the blundering attack on Iraq four years later, and may yet lead to further blunders over Iran. So it’s important to learn the true lessons of the Kosovo events if mistakes made then are not to be repeated yet again.