NATO has decided neither to retreat, nor to expand to fill the Arctic’s security governance vacuum. Instead, it will continue with its provision of collective security, and maintaining a ‘watching brief’.
Due to the presence of the Alliance Security Dilemma, European defence cooperation is likely to remain bilateral and sub-regional, with negative ramifications for Europe’s power in the international system.
NATO, as an international political-military regional organization, seamlessly moves between international anarchy and international society – continuing to thrive beyond its Cold War mandate.
Moldova is one of the few European countries that is not a member of NATO. There is little that Chisinau may be able to contribute to the Alliance to make it desirable as a member.
At the operational level, the Black Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group has been relatively successful. Nevertheless, the goal to serve as a security confidence building mechanism never had a chance to succeed given the nature of the region’s geopolitics.
With numerous strategic pitfalls to intervention in Syria, there is little chance that Article V will be invoked by Turkey to bring in a NATO intervention force.
Unless there is some sort of extraordinary aggression taken by the Assad regime towards Turkey, NATO’s role should remain focused on harshly worded joint statements and nothing more. Article V invocation would be an overreaction.
NATO has utilised UN SCR 1325 on ‘Women, Peace and Security’ as a tool to justify advocating increasing women in the military in order to counter manpower shortages.
By invading Afghanistan, NATO took both political and moral responsibility for its future. It is possible that, at the end of the transition process, NATO will fail its test of responsibility
NATO’s recent Chicago Summit produced no truly historical decisions. It did what was required to keep the Alliance’s slow-motion overhaul on track, focusing on taking forward a “responsible” transition in Afghanistan and the cause of “smart” defence back home.
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