While there is a strong element of a proxy war behind the fighting in Syria, the forces and interests involved are best understood in terms of inter-state relations going back more than a decade.
Romney has been quite vocal in his push for energy independence in North America by 2020. This has more to do with generating domestic economic growth than America’s national security.
Few, if any, Gulf nations welcomed the Arab Spring. Only when Arab dependency upon U.S. guarantees changes will the Gulf states move towards meaningful cooperation.
Events like the fall of Mubarak and the rise of the Islamic Renaissance Movement in Tunisian politics have led some observers to conclude that fundamentalism’s shadow will be cast over the Middle East. Simultaneously, as Tehran’s leaders trumpet their growing relationships with Islamist groups, it is feared that Iran will come out ahead in the region.
Saudi Arabia is currently in the lead against Iran. Riyadh has consolidated allegiance from states with huge payouts and also strengthened the GCC. Though Saudi Arabia faces huge difficulties in Yemen, and uncertainty in Syria and Libya, Iran has failed to make any inroads in increasing its influence at Riyadh’s expense, except in Lebanon.
Much was made of the changes in Egypt’s foreign policy in April when the Egyptian foreign ministry announced it would begin the process of normalizing relations with Iran and Hamas. For the moment, Egypt’s foreign policy is trying to toe a middle line and become something new for a major Arab state in the region’s cold war: a non-aligned state.
Revolutionary change is hard to understand, but it is even harder to predict. Whatever transpires in Libya, political tectonic waves are shifting. In the coming years, Cairo will rediscover its stature and voice; the Arab world’s sectarian cold war will move into a dangerous period; and aspirant democrats will search for models of their own, first Turkey, but perhaps eventually, Egypt.
Three recent publications provide a fresh perspective of the developments which resulted in the decline of British influence in the Gulf, and the subsequent rise of the US.
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