Imagining Post-Baath Syria: Stability or Chaos?
If the National Coalition crumbles, this will mean the reemergence of the factionalist game among rival groups in line with their external regional allies similar to the instability period before 1970.
An Overview of the English School’s Engagement With Human Rights
Looking at the world today, it is evident that although the English School does not explain everything, it does provide a fruitful framework for analysing the hope and tragedy of international society.
Obama and the Syrian Civil War
Increased US involvement may not bring about a quick, clean end to Syrian conflict. But, the limited involvement that Obama has recently been indicating will certainly not do so.
Syria’s Agony: Situation and Outlook, Winter 2013
After two years of a crisis that has irrevocably changed the Levant, it is worth taking stock of regime and opposition, reviewing primary responsibility for the devastation, and assessing prospects, with or without intervention.
Predictions for 2013
It’s that time of year when the illusion of insight is replaced by the illusion of foresight in bloggers everywhere. Attempts to make lists like this one longer or shorter than 10 fail, so in that spirit, let’s get on with it!
Iran’s Syria Gamble: Losing the War, Losing the Peace?
If the Syrians manage to build a free future of their own, it will almost undoubtedly be one without Assad, rendering Iran the great loser both of the war and of the potential peace.
No Help is Coming: The Syrian-Turkish Strategic Quagmire
With numerous strategic pitfalls to intervention in Syria, there is little chance that Article V will be invoked by Turkey to bring in a NATO intervention force.
Russia, America, and Syria
Moscow and Washington strongly disagree over many issues. Their differences over Syria, however, do not amount to a Cold War-style proxy war between them. Regional actors are more at odds in Syria than the U.S. and Russia.
No Turkish Syrian War
Turkey will not be an instrument by which the Assad regime is deposed. It will neither directly attack the Assad government nor be the leader of an intervening coalition. If there is intervention, it will have to be an American initiative.
Turkey, the Balance of Power, and the Risks of Article V
Unless there is some sort of extraordinary aggression taken by the Assad regime towards Turkey, NATO’s role should remain focused on harshly worded joint statements and nothing more. Article V invocation would be an overreaction.
