There is a compelling case for increased militarization in the ongoing Syrian crisis, but such an intervention may seriously affect the prospects of finding a political solution to the conflict.
The civil war playing out in Syria is an extreme manifestation of a common problem: the creation of independent states based on boundaries that did not reflect social and demographic realities.
If the National Coalition crumbles, this will mean the reemergence of the factionalist game among rival groups in line with their external regional allies similar to the instability period before 1970.
Looking at the world today, it is evident that although the English School does not explain everything, it does provide a fruitful framework for analysing the hope and tragedy of international society.
Increased US involvement may not bring about a quick, clean end to Syrian conflict. But, the limited involvement that Obama has recently been indicating will certainly not do so.
After two years of a crisis that has irrevocably changed the Levant, it is worth taking stock of regime and opposition, reviewing primary responsibility for the devastation, and assessing prospects, with or without intervention.
It’s that time of year when the illusion of insight is replaced by the illusion of foresight in bloggers everywhere. Attempts to make lists like this one longer or shorter than 10 fail, so in that spirit, let’s get on with it!
If the Syrians manage to build a free future of their own, it will almost undoubtedly be one without Assad, rendering Iran the great loser both of the war and of the potential peace.
With numerous strategic pitfalls to intervention in Syria, there is little chance that Article V will be invoked by Turkey to bring in a NATO intervention force.
Moscow and Washington strongly disagree over many issues. Their differences over Syria, however, do not amount to a Cold War-style proxy war between them. Regional actors are more at odds in Syria than the U.S. and Russia.
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