It’s that time of year when the illusion of insight is replaced by the illusion of foresight in bloggers everywhere. Attempts to make lists like this one longer or shorter than 10 fail, so in that spirit, let’s get on with it!
If the Syrians manage to build a free future of their own, it will almost undoubtedly be one without Assad, rendering Iran the great loser both of the war and of the potential peace.
With numerous strategic pitfalls to intervention in Syria, there is little chance that Article V will be invoked by Turkey to bring in a NATO intervention force.
Moscow and Washington strongly disagree over many issues. Their differences over Syria, however, do not amount to a Cold War-style proxy war between them. Regional actors are more at odds in Syria than the U.S. and Russia.
Turkey will not be an instrument by which the Assad regime is deposed. It will neither directly attack the Assad government nor be the leader of an intervening coalition. If there is intervention, it will have to be an American initiative.
Unless there is some sort of extraordinary aggression taken by the Assad regime towards Turkey, NATO’s role should remain focused on harshly worded joint statements and nothing more. Article V invocation would be an overreaction.
Assad and the Syrian military are bound together in their fate. Preserving Assad’s power is crucial to keep the armed forces in safe employment – a lifestyle that could scarcely be an option under a new government.
The complicated confluence of humanitarian intervention and geo-political considerations require the Obama Administration to articulate and implement consistent, well thought through principles and values in Syria.
In the case of Syria, Western policymakers need to focus on, not whether to choose between intervention and non-intervention, but what sort of intervention will minimize costs and maximize benefits.
As Lakhdar Brahimi takes over as UN-Arab League envoy to Syria, there is real merit in pursuing a comprehensive Security Council resolution and a post-conflict framework.
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