Assad and the Syrian military are bound together in their fate. Preserving Assad’s power is crucial to keep the armed forces in safe employment – a lifestyle that could scarcely be an option under a new government.
The complicated confluence of humanitarian intervention and geo-political considerations require the Obama Administration to articulate and implement consistent, well thought through principles and values in Syria.
In the case of Syria, Western policymakers need to focus on, not whether to choose between intervention and non-intervention, but what sort of intervention will minimize costs and maximize benefits.
As Lakhdar Brahimi takes over as UN-Arab League envoy to Syria, there is real merit in pursuing a comprehensive Security Council resolution and a post-conflict framework.
US intervention in the Arab world is still predicated on the same foundations that determined the courses of US foreign policy during the Cold War. With the Arab Spring, US intervention is likely to continue and expand.
With Syria descending into all out civil war, neighboring Lebanon finds itself in a precarious spot. The Lebanese government’s equivocal stance may prove impossible to continue.
Carsten Wieland offers a nuanced insight into the complex make-up of Syrian society before it descended into chaos. Such insights will be of enormous value in a post Assad era.
Relations with a post-Assad Syria remain uncertain. Should Islamic militants play a role in a new order, they would likely be suspicious of the West, and deeply resentful of US support for Israel.
Many progressives have unwittingly accepted the Arab Spring narrative in Syria. More scepticism is required because without this ‘intervention’ cannot ever be justified.
Great power responsibility to protect is actually bolstered when effective enforcement is unilaterally implemented despite divisions among major states.
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