Nazih Richani discusses his extensive studies of asymmetric civil wars, the complex interdependencies of the Syrian conflict, and the possibility of peace in Colombia.
The phenomenon of ‘war’ or ‘post-conflict’ tourism can be seen in the burgeoning tourist industry that began to develop in Sri Lanka soon after the civil war ended.
Five years before Hezbollah, ten years before Al Qaeda and Hamas, and 15 years before the Taliban, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam was founded in northern Sri Lanka in 1976, beginning life as one of many militias fighting for Tamil independence from the predominantly Sinhalese Sri Lanka
In mid 2008, the Sri Lankan government began a military offensive against LTTE rebels. Civilians trapped by the fighting face a double peril: if they flee, they risk being killed by the LTTE; if they stay, they must face the government’s bombardment. All this has prompted some humanitarian advocates to invoke the ‘Responsibility to Protect’ (RtoP) principle. Are they right to do so?
The Sri Lankan government’s victory at the Western Provincial Council election held on April 25, 2009 can only have added to its confidence that it is proceeding on the popular path with regard to the war in the north. At these elections the ruling alliance secured 65 percent of the popular vote, which is a huge margin of victory. But what of the international response?
Proponents of “responsibility to protect” or “R2P” have been linking their concept in recent weeks to the waning civil war in Sri Lanka. Are they right to do so? Talk of R2P may well distract from what should be a clear and unified demand to both sides: Cease fire.
The Sri Lankan government is losing the ideological battle while it is winning the military battle. This has tremendous implications for policymaking. Even if the government completely vanquishes the LTTE, the government could be pressured into an unfair and unsustainable political settlement due to the deeply entrenched ethnic analysis.
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