As with America’s war in Afghanistan, there now can be wars without end thanks to a professional military, new technology, and a changing politics of party competition.
The nature of the terror threat is shifting and the question that has not been properly answered is whether we are seeing a threat that is finally in decline or continues to ascend.
While foreign forces in Somalia that oppose al-Shabaab can help degrade its capacity, they cannot defeat al-Shabaab any more than al-Shabaab and its foreign jihadis can defeat the forces aligned against them.
Al Qaeda no longer poses a serious international threat, due to key developments in the strategic, political and public realms after 9/11 which have severely limited its capacity to conduct international terrorism.
Al-Shabaab is now seen by many as a clear and present danger. It is a growing, not a declining, threat across the globe.
The global terrorist threat is diversifying. After embracing al Qaeda tactics and ideology, more local groups seek to emulate al Qaeda. Groups are planning domestic and international operations to cause mass casualties.
Boko Haram has morphed from a local radical Muslim group to one that is more broadly Nigeria-focused. Its goals cannot be reconciled with the existence of the secular Nigerian state.
Proof of concept programs are, by their very nature, cutting edge experiments funded to enhance the efficiency and morality of the warfare the U.S. Army is charged with conducting. It is unreasonable to assume that these programs will come out of the box perfect.
The 2011 Conference needs to make clear that the Afghan government and people, and their international partners, are united in their efforts to make tangible and sustainable progress towards a more stable Afghanistan in a more stable region.
Memogate reveals that Pakistan’s politics is as dysfunctional as ever. American policymakers and pundits have become so vehement about Pakistan’s failure to cooperate on counterterrorism that more pressing problems in the country have been overlooked.
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