Putinism without Putin is the most likely post-status quo pathway for Russia, but this will be difficult to sustain.
In Putin’s case, his identity, personality, and desire to leave a legacy, coupled with other factors, make him more susceptible to using nuclear weapons.
Can the West really not hang together discussing a more complex narrative in which Russia’s concerns do not constitute just cause for atrocities, but may nevertheless have some basis?
An upgrade in US thinking to view Russia as a contemporary country with present-day policy goals as opposed to just an irredentist dying regime should be considered.
There is no empirical evidence that the assumption of emboldened and risk-acceptant conventional conflict behavior of Russia is in some way caused by, or protected by, MAD.
Ukraine’s integration into the West is unacceptable to the Kremlin on security grounds, it is also inadmissible for what Putin would consider ‘civilizational’ reasons.
Putin’s so-called de-Nazification has nothing to do with combating Nazis in Ukraine and everything to do with the xenophobic Stalinist and racist climate in Putin’s Russia.
There is no obvious end point or exit point for Putin as his goal is to win and occupy a vast territory and to be recognized as a victorious conqueror that has restored the glory of Russia.
If this military adventure fails to reach its objectives, Russia will be a humiliated pariah state on the fringes of world economic and political power.
Given the increased use of war rhetoric and calls for no-fly-zones Western leaders must deploy political wisdom and show a capacity for serious judgement.
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