CIA director Leon Panetta is currently engaged in talks in Islamabad, arriving the day after the head of the Pakistani Army, attempted to win back some respect from the Pakistani population by urging the US to divert some of its $3 billion a year aid to ‘help the common man’ while also forcefully re-asserting Pakistan’s sovereignty. These concerns would be heartening if they were not so transparent.
In 2000, the UN reported that 36 countries were currently involved in conflict in which child soldiers were taking part. 17 of those conflicts saw the state itself employing children to fight. While some are kidnapped or forced into military service many join of their own volition, seduced by the illicit glamour of violence, tales of war and the promise of adventure which recruiters provide.
The outlook for maritime Asia appears increasingly desolate. Should China rule the skies while the United States commands the depths, surface fleets on both sides — not to mention the merchantmen that transport the raw materials and finished goods that sustain our globalized economy — will be caught in the no-man’s land between.
The history of Western aid delivery is not flush with glowing recommendations, but to advocate the abolition of Britain’s entire aid budget is unwise. We must always ensure money is being spent effectively with sufficient accountability and transparency. We must not step back from our commitments to those who most need it. The alternative is simply intolerable.
No peace is perfect. But a flawed peace is probably better than no peace at all. Contingency peace plans are not guarantees of success in such war-torn countries as Libya, but neither are they idle dreams. The international community needs such a unified plan to secure a better peace in Libya. If they fail to plan a post-war peace in Libya, the intervening powers are planning to fail.
The Arab Spring will most probably exacerbate areas of conflicting interests between Iran and the US, as the regional designs and aspirations of both nations are deeply antithetical. One may argue that the prospect of a violent conflict is looming large on the horizon.
To seize the opportunity of this historic moment of political change and support democratization in the Arab world, Obama needs to fill in the details of how the USA and the international community will offer concrete, sizeable and sustained help towards securing political reforms throughout the region in the coming months and years.
The need to resort to strategic symbols like Mahdi is to some degree the result of the Persian cultural trait of ta’arof which discourages direct confrontation and criticism. Westerners, bewildered by such peculiarities, often fall back on what they know best, Iran’s foreign affairs, while overlooking the domestic aspects that fuel Iranian behavior.
It is possible that at some point in the next 15-18 months Israel’s policy-makers and military officials will need to decide whether or not to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. That would certainly be one of the most complicated decisions since the establishment of the State of Israel.
The final result of the growth of the PRC’s military capacity is, perhaps, that China’s nuclear perspective will be exported abroad. Countries in the region that are concerned for their security should realize this truth and take steps to avoid a nuclear escalation that would do little to deter the doctrinally-different military culture of the People’s Republic of China.
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