Putin will remain in power until 2024, barring assassination or revolution, and will become Russia’s longest ruling leader since Stalin. He is not known for his willingness to compromise or surrender Russia’s imperial gains, suggesting that a new time of troubles is looming on the horizon. This will indicate whether the West still sees Russia as a political part of Europe or has concluded that the country cannot be changed and the days of democratization have become a historical footnote.
The EU is already the hegemon within its geographic region but to be considered a credible actor in international affairs it needs to stabilize regimes in its neighbourhood more rapidly and successfully than competitors like China and India can manage in their own regions.
The territorial disputes concerning the Spratly and Paracel Islands and adjacent waters are still unresolved. Recently, incidents between Vietnamese seismic survey ships and Chinese coast patrols are a reminder of the conflict potential these border disputes inherit. After a phase of relative easiness among the claimants to the South China Sea islands, these newly heightened tensions cause rising worries in the region and abroad.
Whilst the German experience in South West Africa is significant, the wider phenomenon of imperial domination is the greater contributory factor to the genocidal Nazi mentality. An ethos of thought and norms developed in the colonies which created the potential for totalitarian domination and mass extermination in Europe, culminating in the catastrophic events of the Holocaust.
It is clear then that the Non Proliferation Treaty has enjoyed some success in curbing nuclear proliferation; most states have signed and abide by the rules of the NPT. The example of the A.Q Khan network as a non-state actor taking an active role in proliferation is a classic example of how the NPT is not effective at dealing with the problems the post cold war world faces.
Independence from the Soviet Union has led to both similarities and differences in the reinvention of national identities in Belarus and Ukraine. Belarusian identity is still within its infancy due to the strong Russian influences and the active role of the Belarusian government to prevent the rise of civil society organizations. In contrast, Ukrainian identity has developed sufficiently enough to separate itself from Russia.
In the past 25 years 67 states have abolished capital punishment for all crimes, 5 have abolished it for ordinary crimes, and a further 35 states have become de facto abolitionists. This trend is curious because abolition has met with significant domestic resistance in a number of abolitionist states; in many the majority were against abolition. What explains the emergence of the abolitionist norm?
In an anarchical system, for large states, indebted to a Cold War strategic culture, nuclear armaments offer the capacity to irrationalise major inter-state war, therefore creating the foundations for great-power peace and stability. Similarly it gives small states the ultimate life insurance, allowing them to defy the preponderance of more powerful nations.
As currently configured and supported, the J-15 is no “great leap forward,” but is nevertheless triggering concern among regional nations because it indicates rapid improvement in Chinese naval aviation. The J-15’s initial role will be linked to, and limited by, its first operational platform: a “starter carrier”.
From the Holocaust memorial, to the deliberately unrecovered foundations of Gestapo headquarters, to rare war-era buildings bearing the scars of Red Army gunfire, links to the Nazi-era and the associated ‘historical memory’ has maintained a grip on the German psyche.
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