In this book, Zbigniew Brzezinski surveys the forces today that will shape the geo-political landscape of the near- and medium-term future.
2011 marked the culmination of a range of developments at national, regional and global levels which indicate that there is not just every reason for states to want to do more to address statelessness, but also that something can be done about it.
The EU has gone further than ever before to ensure the future of Europe as an economic union and, whilst they are some way behind, political and social integration is also now a key part of its structure.
The concept of hospitality can be used to analyse EU foreign policy in a number of ways. The EU’s own approach uses this concept to demonstrate the ethical dimension of EU foreign policy.
The Ukrainian power elite have one point in common: the lack of public confidence in their leadership. If voters continue to be left disenfranchised, viewing the efforts of power elites as suspicious and self-motivated, then it stands to reason that more destructive expressions of political conflict will eventually manifest.
Perhaps, looking back at the EU’s performance in the Libyan crisis in five years’ time, the best lesson to (re-) learn is that the EU is not good at hard security policy, but does a very decent job when the task is about dealing with the aftermath of conflict. Stable democracies cannot be built on the battlefield. They require a whole different set of capabilities than what NATO can offer.
Since Poland gained its independence in1989, economic development and modernization has been a driving factor for reforms. As EU at the time was closely associated with democratic stability and the prosperity enjoyed in Western Europe, membership became a vital step in the pursuit to attain Western level of welfare and prosperity.
Putin will remain in power until 2024, barring assassination or revolution, and will become Russia’s longest ruling leader since Stalin. He is not known for his willingness to compromise or surrender Russia’s imperial gains, suggesting that a new time of troubles is looming on the horizon. This will indicate whether the West still sees Russia as a political part of Europe or has concluded that the country cannot be changed and the days of democratization have become a historical footnote.
The EU is already the hegemon within its geographic region but to be considered a credible actor in international affairs it needs to stabilize regimes in its neighbourhood more rapidly and successfully than competitors like China and India can manage in their own regions.
The territorial disputes concerning the Spratly and Paracel Islands and adjacent waters are still unresolved. Recently, incidents between Vietnamese seismic survey ships and Chinese coast patrols are a reminder of the conflict potential these border disputes inherit. After a phase of relative easiness among the claimants to the South China Sea islands, these newly heightened tensions cause rising worries in the region and abroad.
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