From the social uprising that toppled Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s regime in Tunisia on January 11, 2011, to the recent social unrest in Libya to oust the 40 year old reign of Muammar Gadhafi, many political scientists have been left puzzled as to reasons behind the North African revolutionary movement and where it could spread in the coming weeks.
It was widely regarded as a rare bright spot in New Labour’s pretentions to an ‘ethical foreign policy’. While domestic reform got bogged down in complexity, and foreign policy in recrimination, British policy in Africa stood for something pure – the ‘one noble cause’ as Blair himself put it. But what is the real legacy of New Labour’s pursuit of the ‘good state’ in Africa?
While we should scrutinise the ICC’s work in Africa, it is important to recognise that international justice is not the only possible response to atrocity. National and local processes are proving to be vital tools of justice, truth and reconciliation across Africa, more profound and lasting than the prosecution of suspects in The Hague.
For the first three decades after independence in 1960, Cote d’Ivoire was singular in its prosperity and political stability in West Africa. Along with the now stable, democratic, and prosperous Ghana and emergent Nigeria, it has the potential to pull the entire region out of the quagmire of non-ending conflicts.
From afar, the protests in Arab countries seem broadly similar: economic factors – such as the global recession’s impact on migrant remittances, as well as rising food prices – are being cited as the impetus for the revolts. Yet while economic grievances are not irrelevant, the structural meta-narrative, just like the cultural one, is problematic.
Intervention to stabilize and reconstruct failed, failing, fragile, and even re-orient hostile countries may not be avoidable for the U.S. and also for its E.U. partners. But for intervention to be successful it must be undertaken cautiously, preemptively when possible, and swiftly, with coalitions of willing partners.
There is an urgent sense that something massive happened on 5 May, Scotland came close to becoming a one-party state. Independence has in my mind been a practical option for nearly 40 years. Now suddenly, independence is a likelihood. There is a new political landscape.
America’s great power and wealth tempts some to advocate its intervention when civil wars in weakly or ungoverned lands threaten to become humanitarian disasters or when tyrants refuse to surrender their thrones. Our aid for victims should be readily offered in these cases, but very rarely should our troops. America must avoid becoming the global policeman, self-designated or not
The final result of the growth of the PRC’s military capacity is, perhaps, that China’s nuclear perspective will be exported abroad. Countries in the region that are concerned for their security should realize this truth and take steps to avoid a nuclear escalation that would do little to deter the doctrinally-different military culture of the People’s Republic of China.
Warfare today is changing. The course of conflict in the 21st century, and the problems we in the West may continue to face in the coming decades are mutating, developing and adapting in ways that make their defeat – whilst not necessarily more difficult – an entirely different prospect to face.
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