Did Diplomacy Succeed or Fail in Libya?
Although all wars may represent a failure of diplomacy, war is often the last resort of diplomacy. This paradox results from two competing ideas of what the supreme objective of diplomacy should be: peace at any cost, or peace by any means. This is the paradox of Libya. The international military intervention resulted from a mixture of an arguably successful strategy of coercive diplomacy at the UN, and a failure of third-party mediations.
The evolution of modern UK-Irish relations
The relations within and between the British and Irish islands are now routinely described as never having been better; a description regarded as a cliché. A cliché? Good. It was not so long ago that such a belief would have been dismissed as an attempt at humour.
The Responsibility to Protect: Libya and Beyond
Whilst Libya is no doubt important, it is but the tip of the iceberg. In the long run, timely and decisive action such as the international action in Libya will continue to be a recurrent but painful necessity. Yet, we will make most progress towards a world without mass atrocities by reducing the number of cases that become so acute and preventing crises from escalating to the point of imminent catastrophe.
Mistakes and Lessons from the Afghan War
NATO’s lack of success to date in Afghanistan can be attributed to four factors: the reluctance to make difficult choices in state-building, the failure to confront Islam, the failure to confront Kabul, and the influence of China. While NATO may still eventually win, it will have been at tremendous cost and time, and Afghanistan will have posed a great opportunity cost for other NATO objectives.
South Sudan: Not in the clear yet
In January 2011 the South Sudanese voted overwhelmingly for independence from Sudan. Over 98% of registered voters chose separation over unity. Much of the Western media has portrayed this vote as an indicator of a successful end to decades of conflict in the South. When South Sudan celebrates its independence, expected to take place in July 2011, the mood will indeed be jovial. But South Sudan is setting up to be a failed state.
China’s Leisurely Aircraft-Carrier Ambitions
The enduring mismatch between the US and Chinese fleets is no guarantee of an equally lasting US naval supremacy in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Beijing is pursuing imaginative antiship missile technology. If rocketeers stationed ashore can keep the US Navy out of important waters, the Chinese Navy can accomplish its goals, even with an inferior fleet.
The Wolf, the Bear, and the Eagle: Peace in the Valley?
Turkish-Russian rapprochement should not be viewed by the West as a menace or even irritant, but rather the platform upon which regional knots of contention might find resolution. The regional political landscape of western Eurasia has shifted dramatically in the past decade; we in the West would do well to adjust our perceptions accordingly.
The Challenge of Sisyphus and post-referendum Southern Sudan
There is an intense sense of Sisyphean angst concerning the challenges facing Southern Sudan. With a reasonably fertile land, a young population, and plentiful resources Southern Sudan has the raw materials to build a successful nation, but only if it receives the support it requires.
Food ‘Security’: the need for a new framework for analysis
The last global food crisis of 2007-08 should have jolted policymakers across the globe into examining more closely the root causes and consequences of such crises at the local, regional and global levels. In 2011, global food prices have once again returned to make alarming headlines and analysts far and wide are arguing that we stand at the threshold of yet another global food crisis.
A Personal Perspective on the Tunisian Revolution
It was the first cyber-revolution, but it probably won’t be the last. While in the past it was more than common for leaders to rule their people through fear and threat, with increased education and accessibility to the internet, authoritarian leaders and dictators like Ben Ali will hopefully soon be known only in history.
