In its autonomous region of Xinjiang China will decide upon its lasting and largely irreversible geopolitical trademark in entering the Global Balkans. Though it is narrow, the window of opportunity exists for China to take a credible leadership for regional peace and secure stable confidence.
Beliefs do matter in foreign policy as decision-making rarely conforms to demanding rational choice models. The power of ideas in international relations highlights particular human weaknesses, which might help understand a number of seemingly inexplicable decisions. Beliefs, however, are only one part of a wider framework.
The Kosovo intervention was the first in history to be justified solely on the basis of human rights breaches by a sovereign state within its territory, which were judged to present threat to international order. The bottom line remains that Belgrade’s sovereignty over Kosovo was first breached and then completely removed by the international community.
For the first three decades after independence in 1960, Cote d’Ivoire was singular in its prosperity and political stability in West Africa. Along with the now stable, democratic, and prosperous Ghana and emergent Nigeria, it has the potential to pull the entire region out of the quagmire of non-ending conflicts.
From afar, the protests in Arab countries seem broadly similar: economic factors – such as the global recession’s impact on migrant remittances, as well as rising food prices – are being cited as the impetus for the revolts. Yet while economic grievances are not irrelevant, the structural meta-narrative, just like the cultural one, is problematic.
Intervention to stabilize and reconstruct failed, failing, fragile, and even re-orient hostile countries may not be avoidable for the U.S. and also for its E.U. partners. But for intervention to be successful it must be undertaken cautiously, preemptively when possible, and swiftly, with coalitions of willing partners.
As a whole the situation in the Central Asian region is fraught with future social disturbances. They are inevitable in all countries, but the degree of violence will be different according to the achieved level of development. The bloodiest events are possible in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. In the latter country, a variant of the Libyan example is quite probable.
The World Bank rose out of political and security necessity in the US sphere of influence to stabilize Europe. It has grown to adapt through time, both to the new challenges of the late 20th century, as well as to the politically correct speech the growing global civil society has been promoting in the ever globalizing public space.
There is an urgent sense that something massive happened on 5 May, Scotland came close to becoming a one-party state. Independence has in my mind been a practical option for nearly 40 years. Now suddenly, independence is a likelihood. There is a new political landscape.
Almost a century after its birth, IR is still in the process of defining itself. The Great Debates stimulated discussion about the essential characteristics of the discipline, and through these IR theory has undoubtedly advanced in complexity and nuance since its founding, and doubtless will continue to do so.
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